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BSc, MSc, PhD, PGCHE
Accounting, Finance and Economics
Oxford Brookes Business School
+44 (0) 1865 485671
CLC.2.22, Headington Campus
Emmanouil holds a BSc in Economics, a MSc in International and European Economics, and a PhD in Economics.
Emmanouil holds a Postgraduate Certificate in Teaching and Learning in Higher Education (with distinction) and he is Fellow of the UK Higher Education Academy. His primary teaching areas are econometrics and macroeconomics.
Emmanouil has designed and delivered several modules at the undergraduate and postgraduate level and is currently module leader for the undergraduate modules Introduction to Econometrics, Econometrics, and Macroeconomics 2, and the postgraduate module Quantitative Methods for Business and Economics. He has also taught Advanced Macroeconomics (postgraduate), Economic Growth (undergraduate and postgraduate), and Analytical Techniques for Finance (postgraduate, module leader for the mathematics, statistics and econometrics component).
Emmanouil has supervised to completion two PhD students and is currently co-supervising two students. He would be interested in supervising PhD dissertations in the areas of empirical macroeconomics and energy economics.
Emmanouil is a member of the Oxford Brookes University Humanities, Environment and Social Sciences (HESS) Sub-Committee which considers applications from research students in Arts, Architecture, Built Environment, Business, Education, English, History of Art, History, Law, Psychology, Philosophy, Publishing, Real Estate & Construction and Social Sciences.
Emmanouil's research interests evolve around applied econometrics with applications mainly in macroeconomics.
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This paper investigates the factors associated with the occurrences of US recessions over the period 1963Q1 to 2018Q2 using multivariate probit models. The evidence suggests that the probability of a recession decreases with higher profitability, as implied by the proponents of the Marxian tradition. Equally significant are the results that relate to manufacturing activity, investment, and inflation. The theoretical argument however, of those who regard the burgeoning growth of private credit as a factor triggering recessions, is not supported by our findings. Finally, interest rates, Tobin's Q, and labour's share of income are not statistically significant, hence implying that the likelihood of these being closely associated with US economic recessions is rather slim.
The objective of this work is to investigate vertical price transmission in the US beef sector. To this end, it employs the Nonlinear ARDL model which allows prices to be tied by asymmetric relationships both in the long- as well as in the short-run. The empirical results indicate the presence of asymmetry in magnitude for the pair of markets farm-wholesale and the presence of both asymmetry in speed and asymmetry in magnitude for the pair of markets wholesale-retail. The difference between the long-run elasticities of price transmission is more important from the wholesale to retail level than from the farm to the wholesale level.
This article re-examines the sustainability of the Greek budget deficit by using a formal framework based on the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. The empirical analysis uses annual data from 1960 to 2011 and employs traditional as well as more recent unit root and cointegration techniques that account for linear and nonlinear effects in fiscal policy actions. Unlike previous studies, the evidence suggests that, allowing for structural breaks, the Greek budget deficit is unsustainable. The parameter after the second detected break reflects the structural deficiencies of the Greek economy.
This paper attempts to re-evaluate the long-run macroeconomic relationship between government revenues and expenditures of the Greek economy over the period 1999 to 2010. The empirical analysis applies the newly developed asymmetric ARDL cointegration methodology of Shin, Yu and Greenwood-Nimmo (2011) which permits more flexibility in the dynamic adjustment process towards equilibrium, than in the classical case of a linear model. Our findings point towards the fiscal synchronization hypothesis, supporting evidence of asymmetric interactions between the two fiscal components in both the long- and the short-run time horizon. More particularly, in the long-run, the negative changes of expenditures dominate the response of revenues, while the opposite applies in the response of expenditures.
This article attempts to re-evaluate the sustainability of the fiscal deficit as well as the long-run macroeconomic relationship between government spending and revenues for three South-European economies under financial market pressure and insolvency; Italy, Greece and Spain. The empirical analysis uses annual data from 1970 to 2010 and employs various cointegration techniques to account for possible linear and nonlinear effects in fiscal policy actions. The evidence for all three countries suggests that, allowing for structural break, (i) the fiscal deficits are weakly sustainable in the long-run, (ii) the spend-and-tax hypothesis is supported and (iii) the budgetary adjustment process is asymmetric in Italy and Spain.
This article provides new empirical evidence on the long-term relationship between the fiscal and current account imbalances, of five European economies under financial market pressure and insolvency; Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. We attempt to re-evaluate the dynamic linkages between the twin-deficits allowing for the presence of structural breaks and asymmetries. The evidence is in favour of the “twin deficits hypothesis”. More insight is further provided through the magnitude and significance of the asymmetric linkages between the twin deficits in the long-run time horizon. Our findings indicate that fiscal deficit decreases have a greater impact on the current account deficit rather than the opposite.
In this paper, we study the dynamics between house prices and selected macroeconomic fundamentals in Greece. The empirical analysis applies the asymmetric ARDL cointegration methodology proposed by Shin, Yu and Greenwood-Nimmo (2011) over the period January 1999 to May 2011. The evidence suggests that ignoring the intrinsic non-linearities may lead to misleading inference. In particular, the results reveal significant differences in the response of house prices to positive or negative changes of the explanatory variables in both the long- and short-run time horizon. The obtained evidence of asymmetry could be of major importance for more efficient policymaking and forecasting in the Greek house market.
Since the theory establishes a relationship between stock market returns and inflation rate, we attempt to re-evaluate the above relationship for Greece considering for possible non-linearities. In particular, the empirical analysis is based upon the non-linear cointegration framework and applies the asymmetric ARDL cointegration methodology, following previous work by Shin, Yu and Greenwood-Nimmo (2011). In doing so, we permit a much richer degree of flexibility in the dynamic adjustment process toward equilibrium, than in the classical case of a linear model. Our findings present evidence of asymmetric adjustment around a unique long-run equilibrium.