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On-going research on public debt issues during the recent European debt crisis. Focusing on empirical research and quantitative methods, this project explores the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Europe. We use various econometric models and examine the causal effect on economic growth, endogeneity and non-linearity.
An ongoing study of the hotel and lodging REIT market to identify possible threats and trends. This research explores relevant data over recession periods, volatility interactions, shocks, trends and the general market. Overall, this work examines the effects of the recession in the real estate sector as a highly affected market and gives an insight of the new and highly debated sharing economy concept such as Airbnb (also known as shareconomy and collaborative consumption).
There has been very little research to test whether ambiguity affects individuals' decisions to insure themselves against the catastrophic effects of climate change. This paper attempts to study how individuals respond to the availability of an insurance that would give them immunity to a climate change catastrophe. Moreover, if such an insurance is available to them, do they insure themselves sufficiently? Further, we investigate the policy implications for insurance companies: does increased availability of information regarding the probability of the catastrophic event, lead to an increase in insurance subscriptions? Finally, we also investigate policy implications for the State - Can State intervention help in ensuring that individuals have better insurance cover for climate change catastrophes?
The study investigates a set of experiments to compare the effect of ambiguity in single person decisions and games. Our results suggest that ambiguity has a bigger impact in games than in ball and urn problems. It is found that ambiguity has the opposite effect in games of strategic substitutes and complements. This confirms a theoretical prediction made by Eichberger and Kelsey (2002). The experiments also test whether subjects' perception of ambiguity differs when faced by a local opponent as opposed to a foreign one. Results show that there is little evidence of more influence of ambiguity on behaviour when faced by foreign subjects.
This study investigates loan price and quantity effects of information sharing offices with ICT, in a panel of 162 banks consisting of 42 African countries for the period 2001-2011.The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments and Instrumental Quantile Regressions. Our findings broadly show that ICT with public credit registries decrease the price of loans and increase the quantity of loans. While the net effects from the interaction of ICT with private credit bureaus do not lead to enhanced financial access, corresponding marginal effects show that ICT can complement private credit bureaus to increase loan quantity and decrease loan prices when certain thresholds of ICT are attained. We compute and discuss the ICT thresholds that are required to make this possible.
This study investigates the role of information sharing offices (public credit registries and private credit bureaus) in reducing market power for financial access in the African banking industry. The empirical evidence is based on a panel of 162 banks from 42 countries for the period 2001-2011. Three simultaneity-robust empirical strategies are employed, namely: (i) Two Stage Least Squares with Fixed Effects in order to account for simultaneity and the observed heterogeneity; (ii) Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) to control for simultaneity and time-invariant omitted variables and (iii) Instrumental Variable Quantile regressions to account for simultaneity and initial levels of financial access.
This research project expands the analytical capacity of SAM/CGE framework to examine qualitative indicators (e.g. water salinity and land fertility) through Satellite Accounts. Its main contribution is incorporating satellite accounts for water quality indicators into the SAM/CGE framework. One study conducts quantitative assessments for the impacts of crop yields enhancement associated with changes in water quality and soil fertility. The simulations report strong positive economy-wide impacts, which imply that potential investments in water quality improvements are worthwhile even with very low generated crop yields. This highlights the importance of by investing in improving irrigation water quality for the overall economy.
This is a collaborative research with the Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of Drought and Water Scarcity (MaRIUS) project at School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford.
This project examines potential economic and social impacts generated under different scenarios of water availability/quality and drought severity/frequency. It develops a multi-regional CGE model for the UK. This ex-ante general equilibrium analysis provides quantitative assessments for impacts of future drought incidents taking into account direct and indirect drought effects. Also, it allows for evaluating various policies and technology interventions designed to increase agriculture’s resilience to drought.
This project uses linked administrative data (National Pupil Database, Higher Education Statistics Agency and School Workforce Census) and previously unavailable applications data from professional accountancy firms to examine the relationships between social class and A-level subjects studied, A-level subjects studied and type of university attended, curricula provided by schools in selective and non-selective local authority areas and the relationships between social class, subjects studied at school and university, university attended and successful application to major professional services firms.
Following the global financial crisis, an assumed yet substantially untested relationship between public debt and economic growth has sat at the heart of justifications of national austerity responses within and beyond Europe. This project will empirically test and interrogate this relationship, moving beyond the usual ‘threshold analysis’ to test for linear, non-linear and bi-directional causality. The findings and associated policy implications are expected to be of great importance since knowledge of the causality governing the relationship between debt and growth will help discern the true extent of any GDP growth benefits to be accrued by confronting fiscal imbalances and excessive levels of public indebtedness via austerity programs.
This project examines the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade volumes for Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey. We use volatility predicted from GARCH models for both nominal and real effective exchange rate data. To detect the long-term relationship we use the ARDL bound testing approach, while for the short-term effects, Granger causality models are employed. The results show that, in the long term, there is no linkage between exchange rate volatility and international trade activities except for Turkey. In the short term, however, a significant causal relationship from volatility to import/export demand is detected for Indonesia and Mexico.
When detecting long-term abnormal stock return, it is impossible to completely eliminate the “bad model” issue. This study is to find out whether it is feasible to minimize this problem, especially from the perspective of the statistical inferences. We compare three methodologies via a simulation process based on the UK stock market over a period of 1982 to 2015 with investment horizons of one, three and five years. The methodologies are the event-time methods (based on different models and reference portfolios) and the calendar-time methods.
The aim of this project is to investigate the determinants of business cycle synchronization across 21 (old and new) countries of the enlarged European Union. It utilizes international data to evaluate the linkages among bilateral trade in goods, bilateral FDI flows and BC co-movements. The project contributes to the current literature by examining the relationship using the latest available data (sample range: 1998–2011), and thus taking into account the European sovereign debt crisis period. It also examines the role of FDI, which though increasingly important in the flows of international production factors, is currently neglected by the literature.
This project investigates the relationship between income inequality and globalization, measured with both trade and financial variables. We estimate an econometric model using appropriate panel data techniques for the EU-27 countries over the period 1995–2009. The analysis is also performed at subgroups of countries within the EU27, such as the Core, Periphery, High Technology, and the New EU Member countries. The results suggest that trade openness exerts an equalizing effect, while financial globalization through FDI, capital account openness and stock market capitalization has been the driving force of inequality. The highest contribution to inequality stems from FDI.
This study employs a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the potential impacts of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the European Union (EU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The simulation results suggest that a comprehensive EPA scenario is welfare-improving for many SADC members. SADC preferential access to the EU markets is the key source for the prospective welfare and terms of trade gains. Overall, SADC production structures become more concentrated in export-oriented sectors. These structural changes are accompanied by a high degree of adjustment and substantial fiscal losses.
Analysing agricultural and irrigation policy for Egypt within a CGE modelling framework has been constrained by lack of data. The available Egyptian SAMs do not provide adequate information on seasonal agricultural and irrigation activities. This paper describes the construction process for a SAM for Egypt (2008/2009). The SAM introduces irrigation water as a separate production factor. Furthermore, it provides detailed representation for the agricultural activities and factors across different irrigation seasons. This new SAM allows accurate assessment for a wide range of agricultural and irrigation policies within a CGE modelling framework.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance DAM (GERD) is the largest hydroelectric scheme in Africa and one of the world’s most controversial projects. This study employs a recursive dynamic, energy-focused multi-country GLOBE CGE model. The model is extended by segmenting the electricity generating sector between hydro and fossil fuel powered electricity generating sections in Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. Results indicate that GERD investments would slow down development in Ethiopia and that the exports of hydroelectricity need to expand rapidly straight after the completion of GERD if the project is to be successful.
System Dynamics (SD) is an approach to modelling the behaviour of dynamic systems, using programming tools such as STELLA and Vensim. Mathematical modelling techniques in economics can be combined with SD approaches to model Ecological Economics Systems (EESs) to study the interaction between economic and ecological/environmental components within such a system. Such an approach can shed light on the issue of sustainability of an EES and provides flexibility in the mathematical modelling to better represent the behaviour of economic agents. See Nagase and Uehara (Ecological Economics, 2011) and Uehara, Nagase and Wakeland (System Research and Behavioral Science, 2016).
Waste can be addressed at multiple stages, through reducing, reusing, and recycling activities. As waste is a result of activities by economic agents, modelling techniques in economic can be a useful tool to study how activities by different economic agents interact with each other and also how regulatory policy instruments can facilitate socially beneficial outcomes. See Matsueda and Nagase (Economic Bulletin, 2008) and Matsueda and Nagase (Resource and Energy Economics, 2012) for the economic modelling of recycling packaging waste.
Enrolment in secondary and tertiary education in India has shown rapid increase over the past decades, among both men and women. An individual's subject choice at the senior secondary school level (school grades 11-13) is critical for what subject can be pursued at university. However, little research has been done on how well women are represented in the enrolment in STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) at this level, and what individual, household and school level characteristics maybe driving their choice. This paper uses the longitudinal Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS) data for 2004-5 and 2011-12 to look investigate this issue. The research is conducted as an international collaboration with Dr. Pradeep Kumar Choudury of Jawahalal Nehru University, India.
This research project looks at patterns of growth faltering and catch up in children as they move from middle childhood, through adolescence to young adulthood using conventional and not-so-conventional anthropometric measures. It also looks at factors that may have moved these children into or out of situations of nutritional deprivation and how their stunting profile in later childhood correlates with psychosocial outcomes at age 19 and how it may have intergenerational consequences. The research uses longitudinal data collected in 2002, 2006, 2009 and 2013 for 4 countries: India, Peru, Vietnam and Ethiopia and panel data techniques.
This research project looks at the short and longer term impact parental death in childhood has had on children in Ethiopia in terms of human capital accumulation, psychosocial wellbeing and labour outcomes.
This is on-going research on the factors deciding the timing for cross-border mergers and acquisitions. We examine the US acquirers and non-US targets which are public firms over the period of 1990-2015. We investigate both the internal and external factors. The internal factors affecting the decisions of takeover can be cash flow volatility which is measured by cash flow and sales which are standardized by total assets. The external factors explored are US total market value which represents the US economy condition and the US dollar which measures the purchasing power of the US firms.