Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences

Oxford Brookes history lecturer writes on election prospects for The Independent

Wednesday, 07 May 2014


Exactly one year before the next UK General Election, Oxford Brookes Reader in the History of Public Policy, Dr Glen O'Hara, has written for The Independent about what past experience of election run-ins and opinion polls can tell us about the likely outcome. He concludes that the result is still close to call: although the Conservative Party is more than likely to end up ahead in terms of votes cast, what that means for seats in the House of Commons is very unclear given the rise of the United Kingdom Independence Party and the very uncertain performance of the Liberal Democrats in key seats. As he concludes: 'With one year to go, the British General Election is still shrouded in a statistical fog... there is but one consolation: at least the run-in won’t be boring'.