Professor Michael Todinov

MSc, PhD, DEng/DSc

Professor in Mechanical Engineering

School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics

Michael Todinov

Role

Michael Todinov  conducts research and teaching in the area of  Reliability, Risk , Probabilistic modelling, Applications of algebraic inequalities, Network optimization, Uncertainty quantification,  Mechanics of materials and Engineering Mathematics. From the University of Birmingham, Michael Todinov holds a PhD related to mathematical modelling of thermal and residual stresses and a higher doctorate Doctor of Engineering (DEng) which is the engineering equivalent of Doctor of Science (DSc). The higher doctorate was awarded for fundamental contributions in the area of new probabilistic concepts and models in Engineering.

Areas of expertise

  • Reliability and risk modelling, Uncertainty quantification
  • General methods for improving reliability and reducing risk
  • Mechanics of Materials, Material Science and Avanced Stress analysis
  • Computer Science,  Algorithms, Discrete mathematics
  • Non-trivial algebraic inequalities and their applications
  • Applied probability, probabilistic modelling, Monte Carlo simulation techniques
  • Modelling and simulation of heat and thermochemical treatment of materials
  • Stochastic flow networks, repairable flow networks. static flow networks, networks with
  • disturbed flows, reliability networks, stochastic graphs
  • Mathematical optimisation and optimisation algorithms under uncertainty
  • Advanced  C/C++ programming
  • MATLAB programming

Teaching and supervision

Modules taught

  • Engineering Reliability and Risk Management
  • Engineering Mathematics and Modelling
  • Fracture Mechanics
  • Advanced Stress Analysis
  • MATLAB programming and modelling with MATLAB

Research

M.Todinov's name is associated with creating the method of algebraic inequalities for generating new knowledge in science and technology which can be used for optimisation of systems and processes, the foundations of risk-based reliability analysis (driven by the cost of failure), the theory of repairable flow networks and networks with disturbed flows and the introduction of new domain-independent methods for improving reliability and reducing risk.  M.Todinov also created analytical methods for evaluating the risk associated with overlapping of random events on a time interval.

A sample of M.Todinov's results includes: the discovery of closed and dominated parasitic flow loops in real networks; the proof that the Weibull distribution is an incorrect model for the distribution of breaking strength of materials and deriving the correct alternative of the Weibull model; a theorem regarding the exact upper bound of properties from random sampling of multiple sources; a general equation for the probability of failure of brittle components with complex shape, the formulation and proof of the necessary and sufficient conditions of the Palmgren-Miner rule and Scheil's additivity rule; deriving the correct alternative of the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov equation; formulating the dual network theorems for static flows networks and networks with disturbed flows; discovering the binomial expansion model for evaluating risk associated with overlapping random events on a time interval, developing the methods of separation, segmentation, self-reinforcement (self-strengthening)  and inversion as domain-independent methods for improving reliability and reducing risk.

M.Todinov’s research has been funded by the automotive industry, nuclear industry, the oil and gas industry and various research councils.

Research grants and awards

  • Recipient of the 2017 prestige IMechE award for risk reduction in Mechanical Engineering (IMechE, UK,  2017)
  • Recipient of a best lecturer teaching award, as voted by students (Cranfield University, 2005)
  • High-speed algorithms for the output flow in stochastic flow networks, (2009-2013), research project funded by The Leverhulme Trust, UK.
  • High-speed algorithms for the output flow in stochastic flow networks with tree topology, (2007-2008), consultancy project funded by British Petroleum.
  • Reliability Value Analysis for BP Taurt Development (2005-2006), consultancy project funded by Cooper Cameron.
  • Reliability allocation in complex systems based on minimizing the total cost (2004-2007), research project funded by by EPSRC.
  • Modelling the probability of failure of mechanical components caused by defects (2003-2005), research project sponsored by British Petroleum.
  • Developing the BP reliability strategy, generic models and software tools for reliability analysis and setting reliability requirements based on cost of failure and minimum failure-free operating periods (2002-2004), research project funded by British Petroleum.
  • Modelling a single-channel AET production system versus a dual-channel AET system (2005), consultancy project sponsored by Total.
  • Reliability case for all-electric subsea control system (2004), consultancy project funded by BP and Total.
  • Modelling the uncertainty associated with the ductile-to-brittle transition temperature of inhomogeneous welds  (2002), research project funded by NII/HSE, UK.
  • Developing efficient statistical models and software for determining the uncertainty in the location of the ductile-to-brittle transition region for multi-run welds (2001-2002), research project sponsored by the Nuclear Installations Inspectorate, HSE/NII, UK.
  • Developing efficient statistical methods and software for fitting the variation of the impact energy in the ductile/brittle transition region for sparse data sets (1998-2000), research project sponsored by the Nuclear Installations Inspectorate, HSE/NII, UK.
  • Statistical modelling of Brittle and Ductile Fracture in Steels, research project funded by EPSRC (1998-2000).
  • Probabilistic Approach for Fatigue Design and Optimisation of Cast Aluminium Structures (1997-1998) research project funded by EPSRC.
  • Modelling the temporal and residual stresses of Si-Mn automotive suspension springs, (1994-1997), research project funded by EPSRC and DTI. 
  • Six research projects related to mathematical modelling of heat- and mass-transfer during heat treatment of steels and mathematical modelling of non-isothermal phase transformation kinetics during heat treatment of steels, funded by the Bulgarian Ministry of Science and Education in the period (1988-1994).
  • Optimal guillotine cutting out of one-and two-dimensional stock in the batch production, (1986-1987), research project funded by the Union of the Mathematicians, Bulgaria.

Research impact

  • Creating the method of algebraic inequalities for generating new knowledge in science and technology
  • Creating the foundations of the theory of repairable flow networks and networks with disturbed flows. High-speed algorithms for analysis, optimisation and control in real time of repairable flow networks.
  • Discovering the existence of closed and dominated flow loops in real networks and developing algorithms for their removal.
  • Developing new domain-independent methods for reiability improvement and risk reduction.
  • Creating the foundations of risk-based reliability analysis – driven by the cost of system failure. Formulation of the principle of risk-based design.
  • Creating the theoretical foundations of the maximum risk reduction attained within limited risk-reduction resources.
  • Creating the theoretical foundations for evaluating the risk associated with overlapping random demands on a time interval.
  • Introducing the concept 'stochastic separation' and a new reliability measure based on stochastic separation.
  • Introducing the method of 'stochastic pruning' and creating on its basis ultra-fast algorithms for determining the production availability of complex networks.
  • Formulation and proof of the upper bound variance theorem regarding the exact upper bound of properties from sampling multiple sources.
  • Formulation and proof of the damage factorisation theorem – the necessary and sufficient condition for the validity of the Palmgren-Miner rule.
  • An equation for the probability of fracture controlled by random flaws for components with complex shape.
  • Theoretical and experimental proof that the Weibull distribution does not describe correctly the probability of failure of materials with flaws and a derivation of the correct alternative.
  • A general equation related to reliability dependent on the relative configurations of random variables.
  • Revealing the drawbacks of the maximum expected profit criterion in the case of risky prospects containing a limited number of risk-reward bets.
  • Formulation and proof of the damage factorisation theorem – the necessary and sufficient condition for the validity of the Palmgren-Miner rule.
  • An equation for the probability of fracture controlled by random flaws for components with complex shape.
  • Theoretical and experimental proof that the Weibull distribution does not describe correctly the probability of failure of materials with flaws and the derivation of the correct alternative.
  • A general equation related to reliability dependent on the relative configurations of random variables.
  • Revealing the drawbacks of the maximum expected profit criterion in the case of risky prospects containing a limited number of risk-reward bets.

Groups

Publications

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Further details

Other experience

  • CRANFIELD  UNIVERSITY (2005-2006), HEAD OF RISK AND RELIABILITY
    Leading the research, consultancy and teaching in the area of Reliability, Risk and Uncertainty modelling in the School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield University
  • CRANFIELD  UNIVERSITY (2002-2004), BP LECTURER IN RELIABILITY ENGINEERING AND RISK MANAGEMENT
    Research, consultancy, teaching, and supervision in the area of Reliability, Risk and Uncertainty quantification in the School of Applied Sciences
  • THE UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM (1994-2001), RESEARCH SCIENTIST
    Managed and conducted research in the area of uncertainty modelling related to fracture and fatigue; modelling the uncertainty in the location of the ductile-to-brittle region of nuclear pressure vessel steels; probability of fracture initiated by flaws; improving the reliability of mechanical components through mathematical modelling.
  • TECHNICAL  UNIVERSITY  OF  SOFIA (1989-1994), BULGARIA, RESEARCH SCIENTIST
    Managed a number of research projects in the area of modelling and simulation of heat and mass transfer and modelling phase transformation kinetics. Successfully accomplished a challenging project related to optimal cutting of sheet and bar stock in mass production. Most of the projects were funded by the Bulgarian Ministry of Science and Education and Bulgarian industry.