Books
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CHO DY, THE UK HOUSEBUILDING INDUSTRY: AN ANALYSIS OF POST-BARKER STRUCTURAL RESPONSES, Last accessed (2014)
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Cho Y, Whitehead C, Low Cost Home Ownership in different housing markets, Housing Corporation (2006)
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Cho Y, Whitehead CM, Residential Mobility of Social Tenants and Households Entering Low Cost Home Ownership (LCHO): A Comparison of London and the Northen Regions, Dataspring (2005)
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Cho Y, Grant FL, Whitehead CM, Affordable Housing in London: Who Expects to Move and Where?, Housing Corporation (2004)
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Marshall D, Kiddle C, Cho Y, Housing C, Snapshot of the RSL Sector in 2000, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy (2001)
Journal articles
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Soosung H, Youngha C, Jinho S, 'The impact of UK household overconfidence in public information on house prices'
Journal of Property Research x (2020)
ISSN: 0959-9916
Abstract We investigate if house prices are affected by overconfidence of households who predict house prices using imperfect public information about economic outlook. For this purpose, we develop a new measure of household overconfidence in the Bayesian framework. For the three variables we test – changes in consumption, stock returns, and changes in human capital, we find that UK households were overconfident about the signals of consumption regardless of regions. However, households in London were overconfident about the signals of stock markets whereas those remote from London were overconfident about the signals of human capital. The results of household overconfidence appear positive in the UK housing market for our sample period from 1980 to 2018, in particular, 0.5% per quarter in London.
Website
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Hwang S, Cho Y, Shin J, 'Does illiquidity matter in residential properties?'
Applied Economics 49 (1) (2016) pp.1-20
ISSN: 0003-6846
Abstract No, it doesn’t, despite the general perception that illiquidity matters in real estates. As expected, the illiquidity costs we estimate for the US residential properties are large. They are on average equivalent to 12% of the total property returns, ranging from 9.5% to 29.5% of property prices depending on illiquidity levels and market conditions. However, when amortized by holding periods, monthly illiquidity costs are on average 0.08%, and illiquidity risk does not appear to be priced in residential properties: illiquid properties do not show higher returns than liquid properties. On the contrary, we find evidence of flight-to-quality in bull markets: i.e., high quality illiquid properties are preferred to low quality liquid properties in buoyant markets. These results are in sharp contrast with those in equities and bonds where flight-to-liquidity has been reported when markets are in stress.Website
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Hwang S, Cho Y, Shin J, 'Household Overconfidence in the UK Housing Market'
Available at SSRN 2784688 x (2016) pp.1-43
ISSN: 1556-5068
Abstract Using the Epstein-Zin utility in a consumption-based pricing model, we identify three explanatory variables required for the prediction of house prices – changes in consumption, stock returns, and changes in human capital. When overconfident households try to predict house prices using noisy signals for those three variables, their posterior expectation is biased such that they over-respond to those signals. UK households appear to over-respond to changes in consumption and human capital, but they do not over-respond to stock returns. Interestingly, we find that when household overconfidence is removed, house prices in London have been flat since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating that the recent house price surge in London has been driven by household overconfidence in the outlook of the economy.Website
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Brownill S, Cho Y, 'Time to Rebalance Housing Numbers and Affordability'
Town and Country Planning -London- Town and Country Planning Association- 84 (11) (2015) pp.503-507
ISSN: 0040-9960
Abstract
This article considers how planning reforms are contributing to the dramatic fall in the provision of homes that are affordable for those on lower incomes.
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Cho Y, Whitehead C, 'The immobility of social tenants: is it true? does it matter?'
Journal of Housing and the Built Environment Online (January) (2013) pp.--
ISSN: 1566-4910
Abstract
The low level of residential mobility in England, particularly in the social sector, has been a continuing topic both in the literature and among policy makers. The period 1995-2007 was one of relatively rapid tenure change as well as sustained economic growth which could be expected to have increased mobility across tenures but also the costs of immobility in both the labour and housing markets. It was also a period where allocations to the social sector were increasingly concentrated among more vulnerable households. Given these trends does social housing continue to stand out as particularly immobile? If so is the relative immobility an outcome of who lives in social housing rather than how the sector is managed? And do low levels of mobility have significant negative impacts generating labour market inefficiencies and poor use of social housing? This paper uses Survey of English Housing data for the decade of growth from the mid 1990s to examine the drivers of mobility across tenures and how these have changed over the period, with particular emphasis on outcomes in the social sector. These drivers are described and modelled for the study period and suggest that social sector tenants with similar characteristics are much less mobile than households in other tenures but that the costs of this immobility, while difficult to quantify may well be quite limited.
Website
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Cho Y, Hwang S, Lee Y, 'The dynamics of appraisal smoothing'
Real Estate Economics online (-) (2013) pp.--
ISSN: 1080-8620 eISSN: 1540-6229
Abstract We investigate the dynamics of appraisal smoothing in the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) index return using time-varying asset pricing models. We find that smoothing is on average close to zero but varies substantially over time. From the inception of the NCREIF index in 1978 until the mid-1990s, there was little evidence of smoothing. Smoothing has increased significantly since the mid-1990s to the end of 2010. Smoothing increases when property prices or uncertainty increases. However, it decreases when sentiment in the property market is high or during recession periods. The substantial variation in the level of smoothing indicates that the volatility of unsmoothed appraisal-based property returns would be significantly over- or under-estimated for different periods if unsmoothed with a long-run average smoothing.Website
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Cho Y, Hwang S, Satchell S, 'The optimal mortgage loan portfolio in the uk regional residential real estates'
Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 45 (3) (2012) pp.645-677
ISSN: 0895-5638
Abstract
In this study, we propose a method based on large deviation theory (LDT), which minimises credit risk (expected loss). We demonstrate how mortgage loan portfolios can be optimised using geographical differences in the risk characteristics of mortgage loans in the UK. Our empirical results show that credit risk can be reduced by a third when the LDT method is used instead of the benchmark portfolios that we calculate with regional-gross-value-added weights and equal weights. More importantly, the difference in the expected loss between these portfolios increases further during bearish housing markets. To see that such numbers matter, in an extreme scenario, the UK mortgage lenders could lose more than 2% a year as the consequence of mortgage defaults, which is equivalent to an annual loss of approximately 20 billion pounds in the UK. Although this extreme state would not continue for a long time, it nevertheless represents a huge potential loss for mortgage lenders and investors.
Website
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Cho Y, Hwang S, Satchell S, 'The Optimal Mortgage Loan Portfolio in UK Regional Residential Real Estate'
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 45 (3) (2012) pp.645-677
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Cho Y, Hwang S, Lee Y, 'The Dynamics of Smoothing: What Drives Appraisal Smoothing?'
Available at SSRN 1921101 (2011)
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Cho Y, 'Diversification of Korean housebuilding firms: The pattern and motives between 1980 and 1995'
Habitat International 31 (3) (2007) pp.277-290
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Cho Y, 'Housing supply in the UK: Appropriate and Affordable?'
Housing Studies Review 14 (2006) pp.253-278
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Cho Y, Whitehead C, 'People and places: Mobility aspirations among London households'
Open House International 30 (3) (2005) pp.45-
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Cho Y, 'The organizational boundaries of housebuilding firms in Korea'
Construction Management and Economics 21 (7) (2003) pp.671-680
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Cho Y, 'Economic efficiency of multi-product structure: the evidence from Korean housebuilding firms'
Journal of Housing Economics 12 (4) (2003) pp.337-355
Book chapters
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Cho Y, 'Different tenures, different households?' in Making housing more affordable: the role of intermediate tenures , Blackwell publishing (2011)
ISBN: 9781405147149
Website
Conference papers
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Soosung H. Youngha C. Jinho S., 'The Impact of Household Overconfidence in Public Information on House Prices'
(2016)
eISSN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2784688
Abstract We investigate if house prices are affected by household overconfidence about the imperfect public information they use to predict house prices. We propose a measure for household overconfidence about the public signals they use to predict house prices. Our empirical results show that UK households were overconfident about the signals of consumption regardless of regions. However, households in London were overconfident about the signals of stock markets whereas those remote from London were overconfident about the signals of human capital. Despite the negative effects of household overconfidence on house prices during the early 1990s and the 2008 financial crisis, UK house prices were on average positively affected by their overconfidence, in particular, 0.5% per quarter in London for our sample period from 1980 to 2018.
Other publications
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Brownill S, Cho Y, Keivani R, Nase I, Downing L, Valler D, Whitehouse N, Penny Bernstock, 'Rethinking planning obligations: balancing housing numbers and affordability'
(2015) Abstract
It is now widely acknowledged that there is a pressing need to increase the supply of housing in England, including for those on the lowest incomes. Planning obligations are a major way in which the planning system contributes to the supply of affrdable housing, yet numbers delivered are still insuffient to meet overall needs, vary greatly between different parts of the country and have been affcted by the economic downturn and changes to the planning system. Given these challenges, this research explores what works and what doesn’t in the operation of planning obligations and whether there are alternative localised ways of increasing the supply of affordable housing.
Website
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Cho Y, 'An analysis of uk housebuilding sector's responses to the policy changes'
(2011)
Hwang S, Cho Y, Shin J, ‘Household Overconfidence in the UK Housing Market’. Submitted to Journal of Real Estate Economics
Cho, R. Keivani and E. Werna (2018) Room for Improvement: How to (Better) Integrate Housing and Labour Markets,
URBANET, September, Available on-line at
https://www.urbanet.info/housing-labour-global-south/.
Y. Cho, S. Hwang, J, Shin, (2017) Does Illiquidity matter in residential property? Applied Economics 49 (1), 1-20
Brownill S. and Cho Y (2015) Time to Rebalance Housing Numbers and Affordability, Town and Country Planning Vol 84 No 11
Brownill, S. Cho Y, Keivani R, Nase, I, Valler, D, Bernstock, P and Whitehouse, N (2015) Rethinking Planning Obligations; Achieving a balance between housing numbers and affordability, York, Joseph Rowntree Foundation.
Cho, Y., Hwang. S. and Lee, Y (2014), The dynamics of appraisal smoothing,
Real Estate Economics Vol. 42. No 2.
p497-529.
Cho Y. and Whitehead, C (2013), The immobility of social tenants: is it true? does it matter?, Journal of Housing and Built Environment. Vol. 28, pp 705-726.
Cho, Y., Hwang. S. and Satchell, S. (2012), The optimal mortgage loan portfolio in the UK regional residential real estates,
Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol 45, pp 645-677.
Cho, Y. (2011) The UK housebuilding industry: An analysis of post-Barker structural responses, Oxford Institute for Sustainable Development Working paper, Oxford Brookes University.
Cho, Y, Different tenures, different households, in Whitehead, C.M.E. and Monk, S (Ed) (2010) ,
Making Housing More Affordable: the role of intermediate tenures,
Blackwell publishing & RICS foundation.
Cho, Y. (2009) Government Intervention in Housing Supply: An International comparative Study: England Case Study. For the Korea National Housing Corporation. Seoul. Korea.
Cho, Y. (2008) Shared ownership in UK: the current issues, a consultation paper for Korea National Housing Corporation.
Cho, Y. (2007) Diversification of Korean Housebuilding Firms: The Pattern and Motives between 1980 and 1995,
Habitat International,
(31) pp277-290
Cho, Y. (2006) “Housing Supply in the UK: Appropriate and Affordable?”,
Housing Studies Review, Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies, Seoul, 14(2), pp 253-278
Cho, Y. & Whitehead, C. (2006) Low Cost Home Ownership in different housing markets,
Dataspring Discussion Paper.
Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge.
Cho, Y. and C. Whitehead, (2005) People and Places: Mobility Aspirations among London Households,
Open House International,
30(3) pp45-53
Marshall, Y. Cho, (2005) Housing Association Service Charges and their Relationship to Rents,
Dataspring Discussion paper
11, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge.
Cho and Whitehead C. (2005) Residential mobility of social tenants and households entering Low Cost Home Ownership(LCHO): A comparison of London and the Northern Regions,
Dataspring Discussion Paper 10, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge.
Cho and Whitehead C. (2005) Regional and sub-regional analyses: residential mobility of social tenants and those entering LCHO in the North regions,
Dataspring Discussion Paper 9, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge.
Y.Cho and Whitehead C, (2005) Affordable housing in London: Mobility and locational aspirations, Evidence from the London Household Survey 2002.
Dataspring Discussion Paper 8, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge.
Cho, K. Karley, C.ME.Whitehead, (2004) RSL Rents: Evidence from the Existing Tenants Survey 2000,
Dataspring Discussion Paper 6. Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge.
Cho, Y. and C. Whitehead, (2004)
Who Moves and Where? : A Comparison of Housing Association Tenants in London and the Northern regions, Housing Corporation, Sector Study 40.
Cho, Y., F. Grant and C. Whitehead, (2004 ) Affordable
Housing in London: Who Expects to Move and Where, Housing Corporation, Sector Study 39.
Cho, Y. (2003) Economic Efficiency of Multiproduct Structure: The Evidence of Korean Housebuilding Firms,
the Journal of Housing Economics, 12 (4), pp. 337-355.
Cho, Y. (2003) The Organisational Boundaries of Housebuilding Firms in Korea,
Construction Management and Economics, 21 (7). pp.671-680.
Whitehead, Y. Cho, (2003) Who moves and why?: patterns of mobility in the housing association sector in London. Sector Study 25, Housing Corporation, London.
Kencey, D. Banks, Y. Cho, (2002)
Report on Population, Incomes and Rents, Anchor Housing Corporation.
Jones, Y. Cho (2002)
Rents, Income and Affordability in Windsor and Maidenhead, CCHPR, University of Cambridge.