BSc, MSc, PhD
Accounting, Finance and Economics
Oxford Brookes Business School
Phone number: 5964
Location: Gipsy Lane, Headington
Nile water availability is one of the major constraints for agricultural development in Egypt. This study conducts a mixed multiplier analysis, under water and land constraints, to identify the seasonal agricultural activities with high output and income multipliers. It uses a 2008/09 SAM for Egypt with detailed representation for Nile-related production factors employed by agricultural activities across irrigation seasons. The results demonstrate the significance of addressing Nile water constraints not only for agriculture, but also for the overall economy. Policies that enhance water productivity, particularly in winter season, generate outstanding increases in output, income, and employment through sizable multiplier effects.
Egypt’s irrigation systems are inefficient; the use of water is profligate and soil salinity levels have risen. This has reduced agricultural yields and biased production patterns away from high value crops in favour of salt resistant crops. The need to improve irrigation water quality is accentuated by increasing demand for, and declining supplies of, water resources. This study uses a computable general equilibrium model, calibrated to an extended SAM and detailed satellite accounts for water quality, to assess the impacts of the huge investments needed to raise water quality. The results indicate strong positive economy-wide impacts in Egypt, which exceed the investment cost. Income increases by 4% and induce increases in the production of high-value crops; i.e., fruits (almost triple), seasonal vegetables (30-37%) and rice by (13%) with a 64% increase in rice exports. The study illustrates the importance of including water quality as a variable in the analyses of water systems.