Staff Profiles

Journal articles

• Osman R, Ferrari E, Causapé, AM, Calvo SJ, 'Can the Nile Generate Output, Income and Employment in Egypt? A Mixed Multiplier Analysis'
  New Medit x (2020)
  ISSN: 1594-5685 eISSN: 2611-1128
  Abstract

  Nile water availability is one of the major constraints for agricultural development in Egypt. This study conducts a mixed multiplier analysis, under water and land constraints, to identify the seasonal agricultural activities with high output and income multipliers. It uses a 2008/09 SAM for Egypt with detailed representation for Nile-related production factors employed by agricultural activities across irrigation seasons. The results demonstrate the significance of addressing Nile water constraints not only for agriculture, but also for the overall economy. Policies that enhance water productivity, particularly in winter season, generate outstanding increases in output, income, and employment through sizable multiplier effects.
  

  Website 
• Osman R Ferrari E McDonald S, 'Is Improving Nile Water Quality "Fruitful"?'
  Ecological Economics 161 (2019) pp.20-31
  ISSN: 0921-8009 eISSN: 1873-6106
  Abstract

  Egypt’s irrigation systems are inefficient; the use of water is profligate and soil salinity levels have risen. This has reduced agricultural yields and biased production patterns away from high value crops in favour of salt resistant crops. The need to improve irrigation water quality is accentuated by increasing demand for, and declining supplies of, water resources. This study uses a computable general equilibrium model, calibrated to an extended SAM and detailed satellite accounts for water quality, to assess the impacts of the huge investments needed to raise water quality. The results indicate strong positive economy-wide impacts in Egypt, which exceed the investment cost. Income increases by 4% and induce increases in the production of high-value crops; i.e., fruits (almost triple), seasonal vegetables (30-37%) and rice by (13%) with a 64% increase in rice exports. The study illustrates the importance of including water quality as a variable in the analyses of water systems.
  

  Website 
• Osman R, Ferrari E, McDonald S, 'Water Scarcity and Irrigation Efficiency in Egypt'
  Water Economics and Policy 2 (4) (2016)
  ISSN: 2382-624X eISSN: 2382-6258
  Abstract This study provides quantitative assessments of the impacts of efficiency enhancement for 
  different types of irrigation water under water scarcity conditions. It employs a single 
  country CGE (STAGE 2) model calibrated to an extended version of a recently constructed 
  SAM for Egypt 2008/09. The SAM segments the agricultural accounts by season and by 
  irrigation scheme, including Nile- and groundwater-dependent as well as rain-fed agricultural activities. The simulations show that Egypt should manage potential reductions in the supply of Nile water with more efficient irrigation practices which increase the productivity of Nile water, groundwater and irrigated land. The results suggest a more ambitious plan to boost irrigation efficiency for summer rice would be desirable in order to outweigh any potential shrinkage in output and exports. Furthermore, even doubling all non-conventional water resources is not sufficient to compensate the potential adverse impacts of Nile water losses. This highlights the importance of irrigation efficiency for the Egyptian economy.
   
  Keywords: Water availability; irrigation efficiency; agricultural productivity; Egypt; com-
  putable general equilibrium models.
  Website 
• Osman R, Ferrari E, McDonald S, 'Constructing a SAM for Egypt (2008/09): introducing water and irrigation seasonality'
  Journal of Development and Economic Policies 17 (1) (2015) pp.5-29
  ISSN: 1561-0411
  Abstract Analysing agricultural and irrigation policy for Egypt within a CGE modelling framework has been constrained by lack of data. The available Egyptian SAMs do not provide adequate information on seasonal agricultural and irrigation activities. This paper describes the construction process for a SAM for Egypt (2008/2009). The SAM introduces irrigation water as a separate production factor. Furthermore, it provides detailed representation for the agricultural activities and factors across different irrigation seasons. This new SAM allows accurate assessment for a wide range of agricultural and irrigation policies within a CGE modelling framework.
• Osman ROM, 'SADC trade with the European Union: from a preferential to a reciprocal modality'
  South African Journal of Economics 83 (1) (2015) pp.23-40
  ISSN: 0038-2280 eISSN: 1813-6982
  Abstract This study employs a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the potential impacts of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the European Union (EU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The simulation results suggest that a comprehensive EPA scenario is welfare-improving for many SADC members. SADC preferential access to the EU markets is the key source for the prospective welfare and terms of trade gains. Overall, SADC production structures become more concentrated in export-oriented sectors. These structural changes are accompanied by a high degree of adjustment and substantial fiscal losses.Website