Staff Profiles

Emmanouil holds a Postgraduate Certificate in Teaching and Learning in Higher Education (with distinction) and he is Fellow of the UK Higher Education Academy. His primary teaching areas are econometrics and macroeconomics.

Modules taught

Emmanouil has designed and delivered several modules at the undergraduate and postgraduate level and is currently module leader for the undergraduate modules Introduction to Econometrics, Econometrics, and Macroeconomics 2, and the postgraduate module Quantitative Methods for Business and Economics. He has also taught Advanced Macroeconomics (postgraduate), Economic Growth (undergraduate and postgraduate), and Analytical Techniques for Finance (postgraduate, module leader for the mathematics, statistics and econometrics component).

Supervision

Emmanouil has supervised to completion two PhD students and is currently co-supervising two students. He would be interested in supervising PhD dissertations in the areas of empirical macroeconomics and energy economics.

Emmanouil is a member of the Oxford Brookes University Humanities, Environment and Social Sciences (HESS) Sub-Committee which considers applications from research students in Arts, Architecture, Built Environment, Business, Education, English, History of Art, History, Law, Psychology, Philosophy, Publishing, Real Estate & Construction and Social Sciences.

Emmanouil's research interests evolve around applied econometrics with applications mainly in macroeconomics.

Further information

Google Scholar Author Page

RePec Author Page

Personal Webpage

Journal articles

• Alexiou C, Trachanas E, 'Predicting post-war US recessions: A probit modelling approach'
  Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 54 (2020) pp.210-219
  ISSN: 0954-349X
  Abstract

  This paper investigates the factors associated with the occurrences of US recessions over the period 1963Q1 to 2018Q2 using multivariate probit models. The evidence suggests that the probability of a recession decreases with higher profitability, as implied by the proponents of the Marxian tradition. Equally significant are the results that relate to manufacturing activity, investment, and inflation. The theoretical argument however, of those who regard the burgeoning growth of private credit as a factor triggering recessions, is not supported by our findings. Finally, interest rates, Tobin's Q, and labour's share of income are not statistically significant, hence implying that the likelihood of these being closely associated with US economic recessions is rather slim.
  

  Website 
• De Vita G, Trachanas E, Luo Y, 'Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests'
  Journal of International Money and Finance 83 (2018) pp.55-74
  ISSN: 0261-5606
  Abstract We revisit the bi-directional causality between public debt and the rate of GDP growth for 10 EMU countries alongside the US, UK and Japan, over sample periods spanning from 1970 up to 2014 whilst accounting for the nonlinear properties of both the individual time series, and their relation in both directions. Our results indicate that the causal relation between debt and growth, in either direction, is weak at best. For most of the countries in our sample, we find no robust evidence of a long-run causal effect using bi-variate Granger causality tests. Bi-directional causality is detected only for Austria, while for France, Luxembourg and Portugal, causality runs solely from debt to growth, but the estimated effects are very small. In Finland, Spain and Italy, Granger causality (from growth to debt in the former two and debt to growth in Italy) appears to be present in the short-run. Our findings cannot be taken as evidence that a high level of public indebtedness is not risky for the economy or as invalidating hypotheses postulating effects in either direction in the relation between debt and growth.Website 
• Fousekis P, Katrakilidis C, Trachanas E, 'Vertical price transmission in the US beef sector: Evidence from the nonlinear ARDL model'
  Economic Modelling 52 (B) (2016) pp.499-506
  ISSN: 0264-9993
  Abstract

  The objective of this work is to investigate vertical price transmission in the US beef sector. To this end, it employs the Nonlinear ARDL model which allows prices to be tied by asymmetric relationships both in the long- as well as in the short-run. The empirical results indicate the presence of asymmetry in magnitude for the pair of markets farm-wholesale and the presence of both asymmetry in speed and asymmetry in magnitude for the pair of markets wholesale-retail. The difference between the long-run elasticities of price transmission is more important from the wholesale to retail level than from the farm to the wholesale level.

  Website 
• Fousekis P, Trachanas E, 'Price transmission in the international skim milk powder markets'
  Applied Economics 48 (54) (2016) pp.5233-5245
  ISSN: 0003-6846
  Abstract This article investigates the strength and the pattern of spatial price linkages in skimmed milk powder markets using monthly wholesale price data from three major producers and exporters (the USA, the EU, and Oceania) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model. The results suggest that prices in the three regions considered are linked with stable long-run relationships. The Law of One Price, however, does not hold. The dominant pattern of transmission in the long-run is asymmetric involving positive price stocks to be transmitted with higher intensity compared to negative prices shocks; asymmetries in price transmission exist in the short-run as well.Website 
• De Vita G, Trachanas E, '‘Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and India’ - A failed replication (negative Type 1 and Type 2)'
  Energy Economics 56 (2016) pp.150-160
  ISSN: 0140-9883
  Abstract Evidence published in this journal by Bal and Rath (2015) purports a bidirectional nonlinear causality between oil price and India’s exchange rate and, for China, unidirectional nonlinear causality running from exchange rate to oil price. Their entire testing protocol and ensuing results rest upon claims that all the variables contain a unit root. We raise several critical issues and revisit the order of integration of the series as well as their cointegration and Granger causality properties through a ‘pure replication’ and a ‘reanalysis’. Contrary to Bal and Rath (2015), when we repeat their estimated model with their specification of the Ng and Perron (2001) unit root test on their data, we find that their oil price series (ROL) is level stationary (negative replication Type 1), a result which makes all their subsequent results biased and misleading. Our reanalysis confirms that ROL is I(0), linearly as well as nonlinearly. We also find that the basic bivariate model proposed by Bal and Rath (2015) fails to produce statistically robust and stable cointegrating patterns. Nonlinear causality tests confirm the absence of any nonlinear causality for both countries (negative replication Type 2).Website 
• Trachanas E, Katrakilidis C, 'Is the Greek budget deficit sustainable after all? Empirical evidence accounting for regime shifts'
  Applied Economics 46 (20) (2014) pp.2387-2397
  ISSN: 0003-6846
  Abstract

  This article re-examines the sustainability of the Greek budget deficit by using a formal framework based on the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. The empirical analysis uses annual data from 1960 to 2011 and employs traditional as well as more recent unit root and cointegration techniques that account for linear and nonlinear effects in fiscal policy actions. Unlike previous studies, the evidence suggests that, allowing for structural breaks, the Greek budget deficit is unsustainable. The parameter after the second detected break reflects the structural deficiencies of the Greek economy.

  Website 
• Athanasenas A, Katrakilidis C, Trachanas E, 'Government spending and revenues in the Greek economy: Evidence from nonlinear cointegration'
  Empirica 42 (2) (2014) pp.365-376
  ISSN: 0340-8744 eISSN: 1573-6911
  Abstract

  This paper attempts to re-evaluate the long-run macroeconomic relationship between government revenues and expenditures of the Greek economy over the period 1999 to 2010. The empirical analysis applies the newly developed asymmetric ARDL cointegration methodology of  Shin, Yu and Greenwood-Nimmo (2011) which permits more flexibility in the dynamic adjustment process towards equilibrium, than in the classical case of a linear model. Our findings point towards the fiscal synchronization hypothesis, supporting evidence of asymmetric interactions between the two fiscal components in both the long- and the short-run time horizon. More particularly, in the long-run, the negative changes of expenditures dominate the response of revenues, while the opposite applies in the response of expenditures.

  Website 
• Trachanas E, Katrakilidis C, 'Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain'
  Journal of Policy Modeling 35 (5) (2013) pp.730-749
  ISSN: 0161-8938
  Abstract

  This article attempts to re-evaluate the sustainability of the fiscal deficit as well as the long-run macroeconomic relationship between government spending and revenues for three South-European economies under financial market pressure and insolvency; Italy, Greece and Spain. The empirical analysis uses annual data from 1970 to 2010 and employs various cointegration techniques to account for possible linear and nonlinear effects in fiscal policy actions. The evidence for all three countries suggests that, allowing for structural break, (i) the fiscal deficits are weakly sustainable in the long-run, (ii) the spend-and-tax hypothesis is supported and (iii) the budgetary adjustment process is asymmetric in Italy and Spain.

  Website 
• Trachanas E, Katrakilidis C, 'The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: new evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries'
  Economic Modelling 31 (2013) pp.502-510
  ISSN: 0264-9993
  Abstract

  This article provides new empirical evidence on the long-term relationship between the fiscal and current account imbalances, of five European economies under financial market pressure and insolvency; Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. We attempt to re-evaluate the dynamic linkages between the twin-deficits allowing for the presence of structural breaks and asymmetries. The evidence is in favour of the “twin deficits hypothesis”. More insight is further provided through the magnitude and significance of the asymmetric linkages between the twin deficits in the long-run time horizon. Our findings indicate that fiscal deficit decreases have a greater impact on the current account deficit rather than the opposite.

  Website 
• Constantinos Katrakilidis and Emmanouil Trachanas, 'What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration'
  Economic Modelling 29 (2012) pp.1064-1069
  ISSN: 0264-9993
  Abstract

  In this paper, we study the dynamics between house prices and selected macroeconomic fundamentals in Greece. The empirical analysis applies the asymmetric ARDL cointegration methodology proposed by Shin, Yu and Greenwood-Nimmo (2011) over the period January 1999 to May 2011. The evidence suggests that ignoring the intrinsic non-linearities may lead to misleading inference. In particular, the results reveal significant differences in the response of house prices to positive or negative changes of the explanatory variables in both the long- and short-run time horizon. The obtained evidence of asymmetry could be of major importance for more efficient policymaking and forecasting in the Greek house market.

  Website 
• Constantinos Katrakilidis, Andreas Ektor Lake, and Emmanouil Trachanas, 'Asymmetric effects of inflation on stock market prices: New empirical evidence using Greek data'
  Journal of Applied Business Research 28 (3) (2012) pp.325-332
  ISSN: 0892-7626 eISSN: 2157-8834
  Abstract

  Since the theory establishes a relationship between stock market returns and inflation rate, we attempt to re-evaluate the above relationship for Greece considering for possible non-linearities. In particular, the empirical analysis is based upon the non-linear cointegration framework and applies the asymmetric ARDL cointegration methodology, following previous work by Shin, Yu and Greenwood-Nimmo (2011). In doing so, we permit a much richer degree of flexibility in the dynamic adjustment process toward equilibrium, than in the classical case of a linear model. Our findings present evidence of asymmetric adjustment around a unique long-run equilibrium.