Dr Junjian (Albert) Cao
Senior Lecturer (Valuation) In Post Graduate Programmes
School of the Built Environment
Research
Groups
Projects
- The role of property markets in supporting economic and social development in China
Publications
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Journal articles
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Xu Y, Keivani R, Cao AJ, 'Urban Sustainability Indicators Re-visited: Lessons from Property-led Urban Development in China'
Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal 36 (4) (2018) pp.308-322
ISSN: 1461-5517 eISSN: 1471-5465AbstractThis paper proposes a bespoke urban sustainability indicator framework in the contextPublished here Open Access on RADAR
of China's prevalent property-led urban development. Emphasising local characteristics and incorporating underlying institutions, it advocates a more nuanced, holistic and dynamic approach when addressing sustainability issues. Selection of indicators were based on extensive literature reviews and tested through an international expert survey comprising both China-based and overseas-based experts. The two groups of experts have shown divergent views, with the former prioritizing economic and institutional aspects over environmental and social factors. It also
provides transferable policy insights to developing countries more generally, given many similarities in broader development challenges. Discussion on recent literature and urban development reinforces the applicability of these tailor-made indicators to not only monitoring but also explaining and predicting urban changes. We argue it is necessary to recognize the centrality of property-led urban development in urban sustainable development, and the need for examining the complex relations between the property sector and urban sustainability via inclusion of institutional analysis and a multi-method approach combining quantitative and qualitative evaluations. -
Cao A, Keivani R, 'Urban ambitions'
Land Journal March/April (2015) pp.24-26
ISSN: 1754-9094 eISSN: 1754-9108AbstractThe Chinese government is carrying out the world’s largest housebuilding programme for the country’s low to lower-middle income urban households. From 2011 to September 2014, a total of 32.1 million units of affordable and social housing (ASH) were started, with 20.6 million units completed. In the first nine months of 2014, RMB1.07 trillion (£107bn) was spent, with 7.2 million units started and 4.7 million completed.Published here -
Cao J, Keivani R, 'The limits and potentials of the housing market enabling paradigm: an evaluation of China's housing policies from 1998 to 2011'
Housing Studies 29 (1) (2014) pp.44-68-
ISSN: 0267-3037AbstractThis paper examines the housing policies in China in the last 14years in the context of the international debate on the World Bank's housing market enabling strategy to improve low-income housing provision in developing countries. A review of China's urban housing outcomes reveals housing price inflation and shortage of affordable housing in the fast expanding housing market. The paper analyzes policies to increase both demand for and supply of housing and argues that these policies have contributed to worsening affordability. This situation has been exacerbated by problems in the institutional framework managing the housing sector. The paper concludes that market enabling alone is not sufficient to achieve a satisfactory housing outcome for low- and middle-income groups in Chinese cities. It advocates more effective and direct public intervention for enhancing social housing provision and tightening market regulation to address both market and government failures to improve housing conditions for lower income groups.Published here -
Cao J, 'Developmental state, property-led growth and property investment risks in China'
Journal of Property Investment and Finance 27 (2) (2009) pp.162 - 179
ISSN: 1463-578XAbstractPurpose - This paper aims to apply the developmental state theory to examine the institutional arrangements that support the widespread adoption of the property-led urban economic growth model and generate risks on property investment in Chinese cities. Design/methodology/approach - This paper conducts institutional analysis on the behaviour of the Chinese state and examines results from major interview programmes and field investigations on six cities in China. Findings - The Chinese state deviates from other developmental states and is polymorphous, i.e. lacking an effective central state to maintain the standard of governance and regulate the behaviour of local states. The weak central state is responsible for failures to implement national policies on land supply and housing price inflation, to nurture the development of professions like valuation, and to formulate policy on commercial property. The local states, on the other hand, intensify risks in property investment by poor plan making and implementation that create chaos in urban development and intensive competition among projects, and by poor data services and legal support for market operations. Such risks, however, seem to be played down by Chinese property professionals. Research limitations/implications - This paper uses the summarised opinions of interviewees who have varied expertise on different issues in China. Further research could be conducted on a number of fronts, say risk perception by different professions such as valuers or investors. Originality/value - This is the first paper to apply developmental state theory to examine the roles the Chinese central and local governments play in using the property-led growth model on the generation and intensification of property investment risks.Published here -
Cao J, Keivani R, 'Risks in the Commercial Real Estate Markets in China'
Journal of Real Estate Literature 16 (3) (2008) pp.363-383
ISSN: 0927-7544AbstractThis paper contributes to filling the knowledge gap on risks in the commercial real estate market in four Chinese cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chongqing. It examines the impact of urban governance, government real estate administration, and market practice in general and the current status of the property investment market in particular, on real estate market risks. The paper concludes that an institutional study needs to be built into a conventional economic analysis model to examine risks in commercial property investment in China.Published here
Books
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Cao JA, The Chinese Real Estate Market: Development, Regulation and Investment, Taylor & Francis (2015)
ISBN: 978-0-415-72312-1 eISBN: 978-1-315-85785-5Published here
Conference papers
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Gao Y, Cao A, Keivani R, 'Affordable and social housing provision under rapid urbanisation: a case study on Urumqi, China'
(2016)
AbstractUrbanisation has accelerated in China since the 1980s under the campaigns of reform and opening up. Being the only major city with multi-ethnicity, Urumqi has developed and expanded rapidly on a path with both similarities and differences to other major Chinese cities. Since 2007, China has adopted a housing policy to build an affordable and social housing (ASH) sector as a matter of urgency and carried out large scale construction of purpose-built ASH throughout the country. Urumqi has adopted the national housing policy to build ASH estates in the past decade. Although successful in solving the housing problems of low-income families, the city has now faced a series of problems in its newly established ASH sector, i.e. infrastructure shortage, vacancy, rent arrears, ethnic issues and anti-social behaviour. This paper adopts an institutional approach to analyse the incentives and disincentives to build ASH by the municipal government, decision making process in ASH provision, effort to involve the private sector in ASH provision, and management issues. It argues that there are institutional barriers resulting in funding ASH development, screening of applicants, vacancy, allocation and concentration of ethnic minorities in ASH estates. The widening of access of ASH to non-registered households, designed to attract new labour, proves successful. The paper concludes that a combination of local initiatives and institutional innovation is needed to jump over the barriers to efficiency and to generate competition to the sector currently completely run by the public sector. -
Cao JA, Keivani R, 'Institutional barriers, efficiency and innovation in affordable and social housing provision in China'
(2016)
AbstractThe development of the housing market and end of welfare housing allocation have transformed urban housing provision from state dominance to market dominance, resulting in a neglect of housing needs of low income households. From 2007, China reformed its housing policy to build an affordable and social housing (ASH) sector as a matter of urgency and carried out large scale construction of purpose-built ASH throughout the country. Having succeeded in building over 30 million units of ASH in a decade, the country has now faced of problems in its newly established ASH sector, i.e. infrastructure shortage, high vacancy rates, unqualified occupiers, rent arrears, and anti-social behaviour, while ASH remains inaccessible for millions of people without registered household status. This paper adopts an institutional approach to analyse the incentives and disincentives to build ASH at different levels of government, poor decision making by local governments, lack of interests from the private sector to participate, and sources of management problems. It argues that the current institutional barriers result in insufficient funding for some, but excessive funding for others, ASH projects, leading to insufficient provision such as infrastructure and a glut of supply. Lack of national statutes, due to inability to reconcile the interests of different stakeholders, underlies the inefficient management of ASH estates. Unsecured business models create problems for private capital to enter the ASH sector. The paper concludes that further institutional innovation is needed to remove the barriers to efficiency and to encourage the private sector to participate in ASH provision, generating competition to the sector currently completely run by the public sector. -
Cao JA, Li J, 'Policy changes in China’s housing market amidst market contraction: a case study on Jinan'
(2016)
AbstractThe rapid expansion of the housing market has been a pillar of the economic growth and urbanisation in China since late 1990s. From 2013, China’s housing market has encountered a sharp contraction due to economic slowdown, over-supply of market housing and an end to the decade long Macro Control, or government intervention, on the housing market. Yet renewed intervention started to creep in by the end of 2014 to boost housing demand, which by early 2016 has resulted in a reversion of price falls and contraction of home sales. Using the World Bank’s market enabling paradigm as a benchmark, this paper adopts an institutional approach to analyse the Chinese housing policies at both central and local government levels and their impacts on demand and supply and housing prices. It uses the housing market of Jinan, which is the capital city of Shangdong Province, the second largest province in terms of population, as a case study. On the demand side, both national and local polices has shifted from demand control to demand boost through withdrawal of purchase restrictions, mortgage availability and terms, cheap loans from Housing Provident Funds, and subsidies to certain categories of home buyers. On the supply side, national policies have reversed the long-term local policy to expand supply to allow downward price adjustments, reduced government land sales, and acceleration of unsold stock reduction. The paper concludes that China’s housing policy, both at national and local levels, should be less dependent upon economic growth targets to avoid policy-induced cycles, and to better cater for the needs of the local population in terms of accommodation and affordability. -
Cao JA, Gao Y, 'Housing policy change and housing provision in Urumqi, China'
(2015)
AbstractWith the rise of affordable and social housing (ASH) sector from 2006, housing provision in China has experienced significant changes in recent years and impacted on housing standards, economic growth, personal wealth and social stability. To supplement studies on housing policies and housing provision in east and central provinces, this paper examines housing market dynamics, the development of ASH and housing ownership in Urumqi, capital city of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in northwest China. Adopting an institutional analysis framework, the paper first investigates the changes in the housing market in Urumqi under the influence of rising inward investments and participation of housing developers from eastern provinces, and housing price inflation since 2007 that aggravates housing affordability. It then scrutinises the establishment of the ASH sector in the city following national housing policy change in 2007 and the gradual expansion of ASH through new build and conversion of existing stock. The paper assesses the impacts of recent socio-economic changes in the city on the housing market, and explores efficiency and equity issues in ASH provision. It concludes that a set of localised housing policies should be enacted and implemented to overcome oversupply in the housing market and ASH provision. -
J. Albert Cao, 'Too Many and Too Few: Inefficiencies in China’s Affordable and Social Housing Sector'
(2014)
ISSN: 978-3-642-44915-4 eISSN: 978-3-642-44916-1
Other publications
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Cao JA, 'Multi-channel affordable and social housing provision - can the British practice be applicable in China', (2015)
AbstractThe affordable and social housing sector, including construction, management and maintenance, has had rapid growth in China since 2007, with over 12.5% of the urban population being covered by the sector. Yet the author identified areas of inefficiency in ASH provision in his fieldwork in the second half of 2013 and first half of 2015 in Guangzhou, Wuhan, Shanghai and Xian. In particular, ASH provision solely by the local governments, which decides siting, estate scales and design, housing types and management, is one of the key reasons of inefficiency. To improve efficiency, the Chinese governments at central and local levels are looking for ways to improve inefficiency, including pro-active exploration of non-governmental participation of ASH to establish a multi-channel ASH provision. In the UK, there are rich experiences in multi-channel provision in both construction and management and maintenance, with many of the experiences applicable to China. This paper analyses the management and efficiency advantages of not-for-profit organisations, dominated by housing associations, in construction and management and maintenance of ASH, and the recent development in further broadening the channels of provision as evidenced by the designation of registered social landlords and community involvement provided for by the localism act. Recognising the lack of institutional arrangements for the voluntary sector, the paper argues that a live multi-channel provision system similar to that in the UK can be established in China’s public and private sectors to absorb part of the capacity and practitioners. Thus a system with competition and exit can be formed in China ASH sector, raising efficiency in ASH provision and satisfaction of occupiers. -
Cao JA, Keivani R, 'More doesn’t mean better: inefficiencies in China’s affordable and social housing', (2014)