Expert comment: Turning climate, finance and biodiversity goals into reality at COP30

As world leaders gather for COP30 — the first climate summit to be staged in the Amazonian city of Belém — attention has turned from promises to delivery.

On the doorstep of the planet’s most iconic tropical forest, the conference raises urgent questions about biodiversity, atmospheric change, and the pace of global climate action. Dr Wes Fraser, Associate Professor Physical Geography at Oxford Brookes, shares his expertise on tropical landscapes, biodiversity, and the real-world implications of moving from negotiation to implementation.

Why does it matter that COP30 is happening in the Amazon?

The purpose of doing this is to really shine a light on a key region of the world that is at risk due to climate change. I think this is a clever marketing strategy to ensure everybody aware of COP30 is confronted with the very real impacts of climate change on globally important ecosystems.

What’s the single biggest atmospheric risk if the Amazon continues to be degraded?

In terms of the atmosphere, it is the reduction in photosynthetic power of the Amazon, but more broadly degradation of the Amazon rainforest will impact the global carbon budget through perturbing the carbon storage potential of the region; ultimately lots of big, relatively fast growing trees offer an enormous carbon store - deforestation for grazing and other crops reduces this carbon storage potential substantially.

Is this summit finally about action, not just talk?

Hopefully! The shift towards serious consideration of the financial situation regarding climate change at COP29 feels like a step from just thinking about what needs to be done, because there is now an idea how the proposed changes might actually take place.

What one outcome from COP30 would make you say it was a success?

A key factor here is following on from COP29 with regards finance - we need to see a clear strategy for the distribution of the proposed $1.3 trillion per year to developing nations that will yield realistic results. COP29 went a long way to developing the idea, but it is becoming time-critical to see this convert from idea to full action. Such an injection of investment will enable developing nations to push through development more readily and hopefully capitalise on the current boom in the renewable energy sector.

Why is biodiversity central to tackling the climate crisis?

This is three-fold:

1. Biodiversity underpins the health of our planet and is of particular importance to humans via the foodweb. So much of the natural biological world is inherently interwoven with our food sources that as soon as just a couple of species begin to struggle, be it plants, animals or insects, the knock-on effect to food production is potentially catastrophic.
2. From an ethical and moral perspective, what right do we as a single species have to inflict harm on the rest of our planetary cohabitants?
3. The natural systems of the world - the hydrosphere, the biosphere, the atmosphere and the geosphere have been operating for billions of years maintaining the planet in a habitable state, and have the potential to essentially eliminate most human-induced climate change if given the time to do so. But, and this is a big but… this could only happen if we stop all emissions and completely change our way of behaving. With time, mostly in the region of hundreds to thousands of years, the vast majority of the damage done by humans could be “undone”.

Has enough progress been made since the Paris Agreement?

No, not at all, but then it was always somewhat ambitious as an agreement. And to be honest despite being legally binding, it remains unclear as to how any such legal comeback can be levied at parties not fulfilling their part of the agreement.

Can global climate targets still be met?

I don’t think so, although I would suggest a slight overshoot of two degrees Celsius of warming is just about manageable still. However, this will require a substantial amount of action to take place in the very near future.

Who needs to step up most at COP30?

I think it would be useful for China to take the lead - they have the economic position and technology to push at the forefront of the fairly immediate changes required to achieve close to the targets set.