Oxford Brookes research drives national policy as climate reports warn of escalating heat risks

With temperatures soaring across the UK, pioneering Oxford Brookes University research is playing a key role in shaping the country’s latest national climate strategies.

Research from Oxford Brookes features prominently in two recently published national reports, helping to inform understanding of the risks posed by extreme heat and the measures needed to protect communities across the UK. 

The Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) A Well-Adapted UK report and the Fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4) Technical Report warn that as the UK experiences increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves, without urgent and large-scale adaptation measures, heat-related deaths could exceed 10,000 annually in an average year.

The CCC is the independent statutory body that advises the UK Government on reducing emissions and preparing for the impacts of climate change. Its assessments are widely regarded as the authoritative benchmark for understanding climate risk and resilience across the UK.

Shaping national policy

Oxford Brookes has played a key role in underpinning these warnings. Professor Rajat Gupta, Professor of Sustainable Architecture and Climate Change, was a contributing author of the co-authored the CCRA4 'Built Environment' chapter, and his extensive research on building overheating and climate resilience is heavily cited across both reports. 

Professor Gupta said: “Our research over the past decade has demonstrated that overheating is no longer a future concern but a current public health risk. Through studies in homes and care homes, and prisons, we have shown that many buildings across the UK are already experiencing indoor temperatures that can adversely affect health, wellbeing and productivity during periods of hot weather.

“Our work has highlighted how climate change, population ageing and the transition to net zero are creating new challenges for the built environment. The evidence generated through projects such as ClimaCare and the newly established HEARTH Hub has helped improve understanding of where overheating risks occur, who is most vulnerable, and what practical interventions can be implemented to improve resilience.”

Making buildings fit for a hotter future 

The CCRA4 Technical Report makes it clear that the UK's current housing stock and urban infrastructure are dangerously unequipped for a rapidly changing climate.
Professor Gupta’s work directly addresses this gap, providing policymakers and developers with actionable data on how to retrofit existing buildings and design future communities to withstand extreme temperature spikes.

Professor Gupta added: “The message from the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment is clear: adaptation can no longer be treated as optional. We must accelerate action to make our homes, hospitals, care homes, schools and other critical infrastructure resilient to a warmer climate.

“This means embedding future climate projections into building regulations, retrofit programmes and planning policy. It also means investing in passive cooling measures, urban greening, climate-resilient design and targeted support for vulnerable populations.

“Through the HEARTH Hub along with ARCADE and THERM-UK projects, we are now working with national and local partners to combine climate modelling, environmental monitoring, health analysis and intervention evaluation to develop evidence-based solutions that can protect health and reduce inequalities in a warming world.

To read the full findings see the CCRA4-IA Technical Report Executive Summary.

Hear Professor Gupta talking about the £7.4m HEARTH research programme on a recent Healthy Homes Hub podcast.